As the holiday season approaches, many Americans envision a magical Christmas morning blanketed in snow. While weather forecasts for December 25 are still weeks away, historical data offers insight into which cities are most likely to experience a white Christmas. According to NOAA’s 1991-2020 climate data and AccuWeather analysis, a white Christmas—defined as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground—is a rare event for the 25 most populous U.S. cities, with none surpassing a 34% chance. Here’s how the top cities compare:
Major Cities with the Best Odds for a White Christmas
- Denver, Colorado: 34% chance
Denver tops the list, with its most recent white Christmas in 2022 when 2 inches of snow covered the ground. Historically, the city’s snowy Christmases occur in clusters, with only two since 2013. - Chicago, Illinois: 33.5% chance
Chicago narrowly follows, often seeing snow-laden Decembers. A standout year was 2000, with a foot of snow on Christmas morning. The Windy City’s last snowy Christmas was in 2022. - Indianapolis, Indiana: 26% chance
The city ranks third, recording white Christmases in 2022, 2017, and 2010. - Boston, Massachusetts: 25% chance
Boston’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean impacts its snowfall chances. While it hasn’t had a white Christmas since 2009, measurable snowfall on Christmas Day occurred in 2017. - Columbus, Ohio: 22.6% chance
Columbus last saw significant snow on Christmas in 1989 but recorded white Christmases in 2017, 2020, and 2022.
Cities with Slim Odds
- New York City, New York: 13.2% chance
New York City’s last white Christmas was in 2009, with 2 inches of snow lingering from a prior storm. Flurries have been rare, occurring in 2003 and 2017. - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 9.3% chance
- Washington, D.C.: 7% chance
- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: 5% chance
- Seattle, Washington: 3.7% chance
Where a White Christmas is Almost Certain
While major cities may face slim odds, high-elevation areas and northern states have much higher chances. For example:
- Aspen, Colorado: 99.9% chance
- Regions near the Canadian border: Greater than 50% chance
What to Expect This Year
AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert, Paul Pastelok, predicts that a changing storm pattern closer to Christmas could bring snow to the northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes. Until then, milder weather is expected across most of the U.S., leaving snow enthusiasts eagerly awaiting their holiday forecasts.
